Can Andy Burnham Revive HS2’s Northern Leg?

For more than a decade, HS2 has stood as one of Britain’s most ambitious and controversial infrastructure projects, dividing economists who argue that it could deliver significant long-term benefits to the UK economy from environmentalists who warn that its construction threatens the Green Belt and important wildlife habitats.

Now, the railway network that was originally intended to link London with Birmingham, Manchester and Leeds could be returning to the political spotlight.

Prime Minister Andy Burnham has pledged to revive the idea of a Birmingham–Manchester railway, following the cancellation of HS2’s northern leg by former Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak in October 2023.

The cancellation was one of the most dramatic moments in the project's troubled history. Sunak argued that the cost of HS2 had risen too far and that the Government could no longer justify proceeding with the northern sections.

But for Burnham, the prospect of a new railway offers more than improved transport links. It represents an opportunity to take his political project of “Manchesterism” beyond the walls of Greater Manchester and onto the national stage.

It also speaks to a long-standing grievance at the heart of British politics , and one that Burnham has been particularly vocal about: Britain’s persistent failure to deliver major infrastructure projects in the North, beyond what politicians have dubbed the “Westminster–Southern bubble”.

A railway that could reshape the North

A new Birmingham–Manchester connection could significantly increase rail capacity between the West Midlands and the North West, while potentially supporting economic growth at a time when the Government is under increasing pressure to deliver higher levels of productivity and investment for the country.

Manchester and Birmingham are two of Britain’s largest cities and major economic centres outside London. Supporters of a new railway argue that better connections between them could improve connectivity, increase capacity on existing routes and support the creation of new jobs and investment.

For Burnham, there is therefore a wider economic and political argument.

His premiership is built around the idea that Britain should become less economically dependent on London, while giving regional cities greater powers and control over their own economic development.

A new Birmingham–Manchester railway would fit neatly into that vision.

It could become a physical symbol of Burnham’s attempt to rebalance the British economy linking two of the country’s largest regional economies while strengthening connections between the Midlands and the North.

But the price of HS2 remains

For Burnham, however, the biggest obstacle is likely to be financial.

The original HS2 northern leg was cancelled after years of planning and billions of pounds of expenditure. Recreating something similar , even under a different name and with a different specification , would require a major financial commitment at a time when the Government is already facing significant pressure on public spending.

The latest estimate for the remaining HS2 programme stands at between £87.7 billion and £102.7 billion. That figure relates to the current HS2 scope, rather than the cancelled Birmingham–Manchester section, and includes the route from London to Birmingham as well as the connection north towards Handsacre.

The timetable has also slipped dramatically. Services between Old Oak Common and Birmingham Curzon Street are currently expected to begin between May 2036 and October 2039.

For a government attempting to convince voters that it can control public spending, committing billions more to a new northern railway would therefore represent an enormous political challenge.

Burnham would have to demonstrate that the lessons of HS2 had been learned ,and that a new project would not suffer the same delays, cost increases and management problems that have dogged the original scheme.

HS2 or something different?

There is an important distinction between Burnham’s ambitions and simply restoring the project that Sunak cancelled.

The Government has said that it intends, in the long term, to build a new railway connecting Birmingham and Manchester. However, it has also stressed that this would not be a revival of HS2, and that no final decision has yet been taken on its specification or timetable. Land already purchased between the West Midlands and Crewe is being retained.

That leaves Burnham with a choice.

He could pursue a railway that broadly resembles the original HS2 proposal, using parts of the route and planning work that already exist.

Alternatively, he could develop a cheaper and potentially slower alternative, potentially working alongside the Government’s plans for Northern Powerhouse Rail.

The decision could ultimately determine whether Burnham is attempting to resurrect HS2 ,or create an entirely new model for major infrastructure investment in the North.

Why Birmingham and Manchester?

The case for the railway is not simply about faster journeys.

Both Birmingham and Manchester are major employment and economic centres, but their rail connection is constrained by the capacity of the existing network.

Increasing capacity could allow more passenger and freight services to operate while improving connections between the Midlands and the North West.

For Burnham, that economic argument is particularly important.

A central part of his political vision is the belief that Britain needs to move away from an economy overwhelmingly centred on London and instead strengthen the country's regional economies.

A Birmingham–Manchester railway could therefore become more than a transport project. It could form part of a broader attempt to redistribute economic opportunity across England.

The political dilemma

But Burnham faces a fundamental political dilemma: how does he convince taxpayers that this is not simply HS2 all over again?

The original project suffered repeated delays, rising costs, changes to its scope and growing political controversy. Its reputation became so damaged that successive governments struggled to maintain public support for completing it.

Burnham's challenge is therefore not simply to find the money.

He must also construct a political argument that persuades the public that the benefits of a new railway justify its cost.

A cheaper railway might not be as fast. A revised route might not serve exactly the same locations. And a different funding model could require Greater Manchester, the West Midlands and businesses along the route to make substantial contributions.

There is also the question of how the project would fit alongside Northern Powerhouse Rail and other major infrastructure commitments.

If Burnham wants to make the North the centre of his economic strategy, he will need to ensure that these projects complement rather than compete with one another for limited public funding.

Can Burnham actually deliver it?

The political case for a Birmingham–Manchester railway may be relatively straightforward , but the practical case is far more difficult.

Burnham now has the political authority to pursue the infrastructure ambitions he championed during his years as Mayor of Greater Manchester. But as Prime Minister, he also inherits responsibility for answering the questions that have undermined HS2 for years.

How much will it cost?

Who will pay?

What route will it take?

How quickly can it be built?

And, most importantly, how can the Government prevent another escalation in costs and delays?

The Government has already committed, in principle, to the long-term ambition of a new Birmingham–Manchester railway. But it has not yet decided exactly what that railway will look like or when it will be delivered.

For Burnham, that means the difficult work is only beginning.

A commitment is not a railway.

The coming years will determine whether he can turn one of the North’s most enduring political grievances into a major piece of national infrastructure.

If he succeeds, the Birmingham–Manchester line could become the defining infrastructure project of his premiership ,and a physical embodiment of his promise to shift Britain's economic centre of gravity away from London.

If he fails, HS2’s northern leg may remain what it has been since 2023: a railway that Britain promised, planned and partially paid for, but never built.